China is expected to go ahead of the United States to become the world’s biggest economy in 2028, five years earlier than previously anticipated due to the contrasting recoveries of the two countries from the COVID-19 pandemic, a report from the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR), has said.
The two biggest economies in the world are on course to change positions faster than earlier expected about a year ago.
According to the report in an annual report published on Saturday: “For some time, an overarching theme of global economics has been the economic and soft power struggle between the United States and China. The COVID-19 pandemic and corresponding economic fallout have certainly tipped this rivalry in China’s favour.”
The CEBR said that China’s skillful management of the coronavirus pandemic, with its strict early lockdown, and the negative impact to long-term growth being experienced in the Western countries meant China’s relative economic performance had improved
Xi Jinping, the Chinese President, had said last month that it was entirely possible for the Chinese economy to double in size by 2035 under his government’s new Five- Year Plan, which aims to achieve modern socialism in 15 years.
China is set for average economic growth of 5.7% a year from 2021-25 before slowing to 4.5% a year from 2026-30, while the United States was likely to have a strong post-pandemic rebound in 2021, its growth would slow to 1.9% a year between 2022 and 2024, and then to 1.6% after that.
Japan is expected to remain the world’s third-biggest economy, in dollar terms, until the early 2030s when it would be overtaken by India, pushing Germany down from fourth to fifth, whereas the UK, currently the fifth-biggest economy by the CEBR’s measure, would slide down to sixth place from 2024.
