Photo caption: Chinese flag
China Petrochemical Corp, or Sinopec, expects China’s petroleum consumption to peak by 2027 at no more than 800 million metric tons or 16 million barrels per day, the state energy group said in an outlook released on Thursday.
This is a clearer forecast than last year, when the refining giant put China’s oil peak at around 800 million tons between 2026 and 2030.
The anticipated peak would be up from the 750 million tons consumed in 2024 – which marked only the second annual decline in two decades, according to the outlook released in Beijing.
In terms of production, China’s crude oil output is expected to reach 215 million tons in 2025, while its oil refining capacity will be between 960 million and 970 million tons per annum.
Sinopec also says China’s natural gas consumption may peak earlier but at a higher level than it forecast last year.
By 2030, China’s natural gas consumption will reach 570 billion cubic metres (bcm) and plateau at around 620 bcm between 2035 and 2040. In last year’s forecast, Sinopec said China’s natural gas consumption would plateau at 610 bcm by around 2040.
Natural gas consumption is forecast at 458 bcm in 2025, up 6.6% year-on-year, Sinopec added.
It also expects China’s carbon emissions from energy-related activities to now peak at a higher level.
Energy-related carbon emissions are expected to peak before 2030 at between 10.8 billion and 11.12 billion tons. By comparison, last year’s forecast was for a peak at around 10.1 billion tons between 2026 and 2030.
====== Reuters ======
