Goldman Sachs stated on Wednesday that a potential ceasefire in Ukraine and the resulting easing of sanctions against Russia is unlikely to increase Russia’s crude oil flow.
The administration of U.S. president Donald Trump said Tuesday that it had agreed to have more talks with Russia.
Ending the War in Ukraine
Goldman Sachs stated that “we believe the Russian crude oil production is restricted by its OPEC+ target of 9.0 million barrels a day (mbpd), rather than the current sanctions which affect the destination, but not the amount of oil exported.”
OPEC+ is a grouping of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia, and other allies that pumps around half of the oil in the world.
The bank makes the assumption that OPEC+ will likely postpone their planned gradual ramp up in oil production from April to July of this year, due to increased compliance by Russia and other OPEC+ producing countries, as well as continuing uncertainty regarding U.S. policies.
OPEC+ pushed back the plan to start raising output until April, extending their latest layer of reductions through the first quarter 2025 due to weaker demand and increasing supply outside of the group.
Alexander Novak, the Russian deputy prime minister, was quoted by the Russian state news agency RIA as saying that OPEC+ producers would not consider further delays to monthly oil supply increases.
As one of the top oil producers in the world, Russia has a significant influence on global oil markets.
Goldman Sachs expects potential recoveries to position and valuation that will push Brent to $79 per barrel later this month.
Brent crude was trading at $76 per barrel by 0537 GMT Wednesday.
==== Reuters ====
