Photo caption: Natural gas facility
Forecasts of milder weather in the weeks ahead and the proposed U.S. peace plan for Ukraine pushed down on Friday European benchmark natural gas prices to their lowest level since May 2024.
Dutch TTF Natural Gas Futures, the benchmark for Europe’s gas trading, traded down by 2.5% at $35 (30.38 euros) per megawatt-hour (MWh) at 11 a.m. in Amsterdam. This was the lowest the benchmark price has been since May 2024, as the latest weather models predict milder temperatures in the weeks ahead after the current cold snap in northwest Europe.
European gas futures have traded for months at about $36.90 (32 euros) per MWh. Now geopolitics and weather have pushed prices lower.
Gas traders are eyeing the talks on the U.S. peace plan for Ukraine, which could lead to easing of some of the sanctions on Russian energy exports. That’s of course if the plan goes through, which is far from certain.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Thursday said that “The American side presented points of a plan to end the war—their vision. I outlined our key principles. We agreed that our teams will work on the points to ensure it’s all genuine.”
“We’re geared up for clear and honest work—Ukraine, the U.S., our European and global partners,” Zelenskyy said about the plan, which reportedly includes heavy concessions for Ukraine.
Tom Marzec-Manser, director for Europe gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, commented for Bloomberg,
“An end to the war could mean the banning of Russian pipe supply to the EU never happens, which would result in Europe being better supplied than previously expected.”
Despite Europe’s gas inventories now falling and at levels lower compared to this time last year, rising LNG flows are easing concerns about a shortage of supply. However, as in any winter, Europe’s gas futures prices will be very sensitive to weather patterns, geopolitical events, and supply shocks.
=== Oilprice.com ===
