As coronavirus (COVID-19) spreads across the globe, each country hopes that it has the ability to slow its growth in their own country.
As of today, the United States falls in last place with regard to limiting COVID-19 growth according to the number of confirmed cases. According to the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center, the number of confirmed cases in the United States grew at a faster rate than any other country in the world yesterday. Below, I dive into how these numbers are skewed by country population and the number of coronavirus tests conducted.
The number of confirmed coronavirus cases rose from 7,783 on Wednesday to 13,677 yesterday. The growth of 5,894 new confirmed cases in just one day equates to a 76% increase in cases in just a 24-hour period.
Coronavirus growth for the top 10 countries in the world by the number of cases added yesterday.
With regards to population size, despite having a billion more people India added only 38 new cases yesterday. However, this number is skewed by the fact that India has performed only 14,514 tests to date compared to 103,945 tests in the United States.
In comparison, the country that added the 2nd highest number of cases yesterday was Italy, a country with a population of 60.48 million. That equals just 18% of the population of the United States.
It is no secret that coronavirus testing in the United States has lagged compare to other countries. Limited testing in the United States potentially downplays the numbers below, leaving the true number of cases unknown.
In the past week, the number of tests conducted in the United States has increased, however, the data for the past couple days has not been compiled yet. This could skew the numbers to look like coronavirus is growing faster, yet we are simply testing more.
Plot of coronavirus cases in the United States over the last month (2/19 to 3/19)
Ultimately, it’s impossible to capture the true number of coronavirus cases at any given point. The numbers show the minimum number of COVID-19 cases and are highly dependent on two factors: population and rate of testing.
