By Meletus EZE
Brexit will have a “considerable’’ impact on Ireland with the potential loss of some 80,000 jobs, whether Britain leaves the European Union with or without an exit deal.
The Irish government-backed economic report said on Tuesday.
Ireland’s gross domestic product would be around 2.6 per cent lower 10 years after Britain left with a withdrawal agreement, according to the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) and the Department of Finance.
This will nearly double to 4.8 per cent lower after a no-deal Brexit, with GDP five per cent lower after a “disorderly’’ no-deal Brexit, the report said.
It forecast that 10 years after Britain left the EU with a deal, employment in Ireland would be some 45,000 lower than it would have been if it had remained in the bloc.
A disorderly no-deal Brexit would mean a drop of 3.4 per cent in employment, equating to 77,500 fewer jobs.
“The impact of each Brexit scenario is considerable and will have negative effects throughout the economy on the household sector, the labour market, firms and the public finances,’’ said Adele Bergin, the report’s lead author.
The study focused on trade, incorporating the effects of tariff and non-tariff measures, and the potentially positive impact of foreign direct investment to Ireland.
It assessed the impact of lower Britain-EU trade on Ireland’s main trading partners and found that it would severely reduce the demand for Irish exports.
A forecast rise in foreign direct investment would probably be outweighed by a fall in trade, it warned.===dpa
