Following two quarters of positive albeit 1.0 per cent growth levels, economic experts have said they expect the non-oil sector to spearhead the rebound in economic growth just as they predicted that the sector would grow by 2.31 per cent by the end of the year.
According to Cordros Research in its 2021 mid-year outlook report for Nigeria titled; Navigating the uneven path of recovery, the nation’s economy would remain on the path of growth over the rest of 2021.
It explained that the outlook was based on the research and investment based firm’s expectation of no further lockdown of the economy while the full reopening continues to support domestic demand while adding that the increase in oil production and oil prices will also have a positive ripple effect on the other sectors of the economy, given the country’s heavy reliance on the external sector.
This, they said, would bring about a 2.63 per cent y/y real GDP growth by the end of the year, supported by broad-based expansion across the oil and non-oil sectors.
The report further stated that the services sector would benefit from the full reopening of the economy as service-oriented companies expand operations after the pandemic-induced rationalisation of activities.
“Over the rest of the year (August to December), we expect OPEC+ to continue to reduce the production cuts slowly, in line with the recovery in global oil demand. Overall, we expect Nigeria’s oil production (including condensates) to average 1.82mb/d in 2021 (2020 FY: 1.78mb/d). Given improved oil output alongside the low base from the prior year, we estimate oil GDP will grow by 6.71 per cent y/y. We still expect the non-oil sector to spearhead the rebound in economic growth. Specifically, we expect the Services sector to benefit from the full reopening of the economy as service-oriented companies expand operations after the pandemic-induced rationalisation of activities. Improved activities in the informal sector and the rising activities of payment service banks are also positive for the Telecommunications industry
