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Global trade will grow to $30trn by 2030 – Study shows

A new research by Standard Chartered has projected that global exports will almost double from US$17.4 trillion to US$ 29.7 trillion over the next decade.

The report, made available on Wednesday in Lagos, revealed the 13 markets that would drive much of this growth, identified major corridors, and five trends shaping the future of global trade.

Executive Director, Corporate Commercial and Institutional Banking, Standard Chartered, Mr Korede Adenowo, said in the report: “The predicted doubling of global trade offers strong evidence that globalisation is still working, despite recent dislocation.

“In addition to the growth of intra-regional trade pathways, the corridors of the future will still cut across continents.

“Against this backdrop, we continue to focus on making globalisation work for more markets and businesses, ranging from micro to multinational, and drive a more sustainable and inclusive model for global trade.

“This includes growing our range of sustainable finance solutions to help our corporate clients implement sustainable and fair-trade practices across their supply chains,” he said.

According to the report, the 13 markets driving future trade growth includes: Bangladesh with exports of US$ 51 billion at an annual growth rate of 7 per cent through India, UAE, USA corridors.

They are followed by Hong Kong with US$ 939 billion at 5.7 per cent through Japan, Mainland China, USA corridors; following behind is India with US$ 564 billion at 7.6 per cent, through Hong Kong, Singapore, USA corridors.

Also, Indonesia, Kenya, Mainland China, Malaysia, Nigeria with US$ 348 billion; US$ 10 billion; US$ 5.02 billion; US$ 499 billion and US$ 112 billion respectively.

The report, commissioned by Standard Chartered and prepared by PwC Singapore, was based on an analysis of historical trade data and projections until 2030, as well as insights from a survey of more than 500 C-suite and senior leaders in global companies.

According to the report, global trade will be reshaped by five key trends: the wider adoption of sustainable and fair-trade practices; a push for more inclusive participation; greater risk diversification; more digitisation and a rebalancing towards high-growth emerging markets.

It stated that almost 90 per cent of the corporate leaders surveyed agreed that these trends will shape the future of trade and will form part of their five- to 10-year cross-border expansion strategies.

“Globalisation will drive the next decade of growth. Despite the recent push towards onshoring, growth corridors of the future will not just be intraregional, they will be global spanning Africa-East Asia; ASEAN-South Asia; East Asia-Europe; East Asia-Middle East; East Asia-Europe; South Asia-US.

“Asia, Africa and the Middle East will see a ramp-up in investment flows, with 82 per cent of respondents saying they are considering new production locations in these regions in the next five to 10 years, supporting the trend towards rebalancing to emerging markets and greater risk diversification of supply chains,” it said.

It added that the research found a significant trend towards the adoption of sustainable trade practices in response to climate concerns and a rising wave of conscious consumerism.

It noted, however, that, while almost 90 per cent of corporate leaders acknowledged the need to implement these practices across their supply chains, only 34 per cent ranked it as a ‘top three’ priority for execution over the next five to 10 years

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