Photo caption: OPEC logo
*OPEC+ ministers unlikely to alter supply policy
*Group shifts attention to complex quota review
*Iran conflict weakens OPEC’s influence over market
OPEC+ is set to keep its oil output policy unchanged for October at a meeting on Sunday, two people familiar with the discussions told Reuters, as the producer group needs to agree new quotas before deciding its next output steps.
According to Reuters, the meeting comes as the Iran war continues to disrupt oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz, limiting OPEC+’s influence over prices and market share. Unlike in the past, the group’s supply decisions have had a limited impact on the market.
In August, OPEC+ agreed its production boost for September, completing a phased rollback of a 1.65 million-barrel-per-day supply cut first agreed in 2023. Despite the agreed production increases, the group made up of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, including Russia, still produces far below its targets because of the war.
OPEC+ still has another layer of production cuts in place, covering most members of the 21-country group until the end of 2026. Before the group decides how to unwind the cuts and return production to the market, it needs to review members’ oil production capacity to set 2027 output baselines, which form the basis for quotas.
This debate will likely happen later in 2026 and hence OPEC+ is likely to pause its output increases for the fourth quarter, sources earlier told Reuters.
