Afolabi Akinrogunde, Head of Commercial Growth and Partnerships at Shell Energy Nigeria, has warned that the national grid could become irrelevant within a decade if the power sector players fail to deliver reliable supply, as households and businesses increasingly turn to solar and other off-grid options.
Adeola Labzy, Special Adviser on Media to the Minister of Power, Joseph Tegbe, clarifying Akinrogunde’s position, emphasised that alternative sources, mainly renewables would complement, not replace or compete with the grid.
The exchange between the two panelists took place at the NAEC Energy Conference during a power sector session topic “Unlocking the Opportunity in a Multi-Tier Power Market,” was moderated by Sopuruchi Onwuka, an energy expert.
Responding to Onwuka’s question on the future of the grid and the apparent shift away from it, as Nigeria sees growing reliance on micro-generation and green energy, with solar expanding rapidly, Akinrogunde said the macroeconomic climate is now favouring solar adoption.
According to him, past naira devaluation was the main factor holding back wider uptake, even though the global cost of solar inputs has fallen steadily over the last decade.
He said, “The only reason we have not gone as far as we could in solar adoption in the last decade is the naira devaluation.
“But what we are seeing now is the stability we have had since 2023.”
Akinrogunde, who is also a former Acting CEO of All On, added that the relative stability of the naira since 2023 has made imported solar equipment more affordable and predictable to buy. Consumers, he said, are responding with systems that match their level of operations.
He explained that households are installing systems of around 500 watts and 750 watts, typically costing under N1 million.
“Many buyers fund them through bank loans or fintech lenders, and they can recoup the cost within about 18 months.
“It is natural to be paying and adopting, as consumers are realising the solutions solve their electricity needs.
Meanwhile the Head, Commercial Growth and Partnerships, Shell Energy Nigeria noted that manufacturers and other industries, by contrast, will lean toward natural gas because it suits their existing generators, furnaces and boilers.
“Power sector players have till the end of the next decade to address all grid issues,” he cautioned.
Akinrogunde said Nigerians will eventually solve their power problem the way they have handled portable water and security, by finding their own solutions.
He said he recently told a DisCo Managing Director that distribution companies have until the end of the next decade to fix the sector “or be left behind.”
“Nobody is going to be waiting for the national grid forever,” he said.
Akinrogunde disclosed that many consumers pleading for grid access still do not get reliable power even when connected.
He warned that unless government acts, DisCos and GenCos could begin to lose value and the grid could become irrelevant.
Reacting during the panel session, Labzy acknowledged that renewable energy is growing impressively and deserves applause, but assured that it will complement, not compete with or replace the grid.
He noted that Nigeria currently has over 13,000MW of installed generation capacity and over 7,000MW of transmission capacity. He pointed to a projected leap in power demand, driven by new technologies, especially data centres and artificial intelligence.
“The Ministry of Power is leading a major transformation of the electricity sector, with plans to grow installed capacity by leveraging renewables, including small hydro projects,” he said.
He explained that the priority for electricity consumers is having power in their homes. Achieving that sustainably, he said, requires DisCos, the Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN) and generation companies (GenCos) to recover their costs. Transmission lines must function, and DisCos must fully meter their customers.
“We must address everything along the ecosystem to ensure the sector is bankable,” he said. He added that aggregate technical, commercial and collection losses must be kept minimal, and that operators must account for every megawatt generated and supplied from end to end, including the gas delivered to GenCos. The market, he said, must also account for every naira customers pay per kilowatt-hour.
Describing President Bola Tinubu’s Electricity Act as “bold and audacious,” Labzy said it now falls to the Ministry of Power, regulators and operators to ensure everyone plays their part as the law requires, so that Nigerians have access to stable electricity.
