Donald Trump is such an intriguing, yet so predictable, personality, and a subject too tempting for analysts to ignore. After several articles in the last four years, I have refrained from obsessing about him. But seriously speaking, ignoring writing about him, his character, idiosyncrasies, politics, leadership style or lack thereof, his uniquely illiterate and jaundiced worldview and the foreign policy which proceeds from it, is difficult for any analyst of world affairs. No matter how much you try to ignore him, he has his way of insinuating himself and intruding into your consciousness when you least expect. When he is not fear-mongering or engaging in his characteristic xenophobic vituperations, he is dutifully engaged in a war with the mass media, or grating on everyone’s nerves accusing other countries of being ingrates unworthy of America’s friendship. As for African states, he simply ignores them for the ‘shitholes’ that they are, more so that he has a bigger fish to fry with China as his scapegoat for the coronavirus pandemic.
The Covid-19 pandemic has undoubtedly spiralled out of control in the US, consumed the lives of thousands of Americans, with no hope of a respite in sight, and has exploded the myth and emptiness of America’s boast of having the best medical and healthcare infrastructure in the world to handle epidemic outbreaks. It has also allowed the whole world to see Donald Trump’s shocking personal deficiencies, and the spectacular poverty of his leadership in crisis management. History’s great leaders have always been defined by how they lead in times of crisis. Not so for Trump, the current crisis has severely tested his puny leadership skills to their limits. Rather than exercise leadership and take responsibility for anything, his natural instinct is to blame others for his failures and inadequacies. And he has cultivated his own array of whipping boys for this purpose. If it is not opposition Democrats, then it must be the mainstream mass media which he brands as fake news, or China or any other country or institution that suits his fancy. Deep down, Americans must think of themselves so unfortunate to be led at this critical juncture in world history by a man so obviously bereft of imagination, strategic vision and integrity. But then, in a democracy, who you elect is exactly who you get!
Now to the main issue under focus here: Donald Trump’s foreign policy as it will impact on the presidential election this November. It is well known that, since the end of WWII, foreign policy successes have played significant roles in US presidential election victories. Contrariwise, spectacular failures in foreign policy have also worked against incumbents of the White House seeking re-election, Jimmy Carter’s defeat by Ronald Reagan in 1980 being a case in point. Carter lost that election substantially because he could not obtain release of 54 American diplomats who were held hostage in Tehran by Iranian revolutionaries. Like Carter, Trump is also seeking a second term in office in the midst of a crisis situation, and is thus not unmindful of the importance of foreign policy on electoral victory. For example, to win the 2016 election, he went full throttle against China, the Iran nuclear deal, the Paris Climate Accord, NATO, the UN, all of them foreign policy matters. He raised hell against Muslims, vowed to build a wall against Mexico, stigmatized African immigrants, and denounced America’s European partners as freeloaders. And for all these he got the adulation of his base and received their votes. Since he came to power, he has successfully gotten rid of the Iran Nuclear deal, exited the international climate accord, degraded US trans-Atlantic relationships and cooperation, repudiated NAFTA and other economic pacts. Unfortunately, China has remained a hard nut to crack.
He has fulfilled some of campaign promises, but he has also in his characteristic braggadocio, added North Korea, and Iran and Venezuela to the potent mix of foreign adversaries, the last two where he had hoped to fulfill his wish for regime change. All his efforts and use of killer sanctions to instigate regime change in Iran and Venezuela have failed woefully; he backed off from threatening North Korea once that nuclear-armed state showed it didn’t take kindly to external bullying. In Venezuela, his adopted Trojan Horse for regime change, Juan Guaido, has turned out a spectacular disappointment. Trump also flirted with instigating a war with the Islamic Republic of Iran, even assassinated its top army general, Qassim Soleimani, but also had to swiftly back out when that country revealed its vast capabilities for asymmetric warfare in the Middle East and beyond. So far, most of the foreign policy successes he desired have thus failed to materialize, making him desperate for a breakthrough before the November elections. Now that the Covid-19 crisis has prevented political campaigns, he has turned to relentless China-bashing and spreading Sino-phobia as a substitute.
Could this string of failures and the attendant desperation provoke him to some dramatic foreign policy action, possibly an audacious attack on a foreign country to improve his rating as a ‘strong leader’ Americans should re-elect? Remember, it is the lot of politicians to worry about the next election. What will Trump likely do to shore up his flagging legitimacy ahead of the presidential election due this November? As a power monger, he seems more fixated on the coming election for now than actually governing America and this intractable coronavirus pandemic that seems like a huge distraction he wished he never had. Arresting the spread and stanching the deaths across the country is a gigantic task seem far beyond his ken. Unfortunately, it’s not one he can wish away by blame game and escapism. If anything, the pandemic has severely exposed the limitations of America’s vaunted world’s best medical facilities. America has had to swallow national pride to accept medical assistance from countries like China and South Korea! So much for the myth of American exceptionalism!
Now that the national lockdown and compulsory social distancing would not allow Trump to hit the campaign trail that he so loves, he has instead taken over the job of the medical and health experts, controlling the daily national briefing to keep himself permanently visible to his base, spinning the narrative to suit his political interests and cover his crass incompetence, spewing his characteristic ego-boosting and usually incorrect assertions, bragging about his leadership and pouring vitriol on perceived opponents, taking potshots at journalists from the mainstream media whose questions he finds inconvenient.
Fast losing face at home over his poor handling of the pandemic, and failing woefully abroad, and with the scary prospect of facing Joe Biden that he dreads as opponent in the election, could Trump be pushed to consider something audacious, like a foreign invasion perhaps? A war with China is out of the question, North Korea has successfully caged Trump, Iran is too dangerous a regional adversary to be taken on headlong, which leaves Venezuela the most vulnerable target for him to fulfill his desire for regime change that can be touted as a foreign policy success. You cannot put anything past a politician who believes he is sinking. I sincerely hope he won’t be that desperate.
