*Makes Executive Committee changes
*Robin Mooldijk replaces Harry Brekelmans
*Philippa Bounds replaces Donny Ching
By Emeka Ugwuanyi
Shell plc has published its latest scenarios: the Energy Security Scenarios. The two new scenarios explore how the world could evolve following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Specifically, they look into the possible energy and climate outcomes that could result from a world that has security as its dominant concern.
Shell Scenarios are not predictions or expectations of what will happen, or what will probably happen. They are not expressions of Shell’s strategy, and they are not Shell’s business plan; they are one of the many inputs used by Shell to stretch thinking whilst making decisions.
The first scenario, called Archipelagos, follows how today’s pressures could play out to the end of the century. National interest remains key and renewables are mainly seen as a way to improve energy security. By 2100, net-zero emissions is within sight, but the world has failed to meet the goal of the Paris Agreement. This scenario is “exploratory”: it seeks to plot a course from where the world stood in 2022.
The second scenario, called Sky 2050, shows just how fast the world must move to meet the goal of the Paris Agreement. Global climate security becomes the primary concern. Nations race to switch to cleaner energy and a competitive landscape emerges for technology, minerals and manufacturing capacity. Competition drives rapid change and the world reaches net-zero emissions in 2050. This scenario is “normative” and extremely challenging: it set goals of net-zero emissions by 2050 and warming restricted to below 1.5°C by 2100, and then worked back to the realities of 2022 to explore how these end points could be reached.
Key points from the Energy Security Scenarios include:
Fossil fuels lose market share. The energy system is decarbonising, the questions is: how fast?
There is no realistic path to an instant and steep drop in emissions.
The average temperature rise is highly likely to breach 1.5°C.
The future of energy is electricity, although hydrogen and bioenergy have significant roles to play.
Bringing the temperature rise back down below 1.5°C will require large-scale carbon removal and storage.
Scenarios are informed by data, constructed using models and contain insights from leading experts in the relevant fields. Ultimately, for all readers, scenarios are intended as an aid to making better decisions. They stretch minds, broaden horizons and explore assumptions.
Explore the Energy Security Scenarios, including a summary, at www.shell.com/scenarios to find out more.
The Sky 2050 scenario is a normative scenario, which means we assume that society meets the most ambitious goal of the Paris agreement: limiting the increase in global average temperatures to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels this century, and then we work back in presenting how this may occur.
Our Archipelagos scenario is an explorative scenario, which means we do not assume the final outcome, rather we use plausible assumptions based on the data to determine what we believe will occur in the future.
Meanwhile, after 33 years of service with Shell, Harry Brekelmans will step down from his role as Projects & Technology Director, a position he has held for almost nine years, effective 30 June 2023. Robin Mooldijk, currently Executive Vice President (EVP) Chemicals & Products, will be appointed Projects & Technology Director, effective 1 July 2023.
And following more than 33 years of service with Shell, Donny Ching will step down from his role as Legal Director, a position he has held for just over nine years, effective 30 June 2023. Philippa Bounds, currently General Counsel, Trading & Supply, will be appointed Legal Director, effective 1 July 2023.
Shell CEO Wael Sawan said: “Harry and Donny have both had long and distinguished careers in Shell, and I wish them all the best for the future.
“Harry was instrumental in improving project and well delivery in Shell, and in developing Shell’s sustainability and carbon ambitions. He launched the Technology Centre in Bangalore, transformed its equivalent in Amsterdam, and has been a powerful advocate for safety, technology and innovation across the company.
“Donny’s commitment to the highest standards of transparency on ethics and compliance has been outstanding, as has his work on many important legal cases involving Shell. He’s a true champion of our people, of DE&I, and of developing talent across the globe – he has helped to make Shell a truly better place to work.
“I’d like to welcome Robin and Philippa to the Executive Committee. They have important roles to play as we build our new top team to deliver our Powering Progress strategy through providing the energy the world needs, now and in the future, purposefully and profitably.”
Harry Brekelmans joined Shell in 1990 and has held various leadership positions in Exploration and Production, Internal Audit, and Group Strategy and Planning. From 2011 to 2013, he was Country Chair Russia and EVP for Russia and the Caspian region. Before becoming P&T Director in late 2014, he was EVP for Upstream International Operated, based in the Netherlands.
Donny Ching joined Shell Australia in 1989, moving to Hong Kong and later to London. He was appointed Head of Legal for Shell Singapore in 2008, having earlier moved there as Associate General Counsel for Gas & Power in Asia-Pacific. Prior to becoming Legal Director, he was General Counsel for Projects & Technology, based in the Netherlands.
Robin Mooldijk began his career with Shell in 1991 in the Koninklijke Shell Laboratory Amsterdam and has held a range of key leadership roles in Chemicals and Refining, Manufacturing and Supply, in the Netherlands, South Africa and USA. He is currently EVP Chemicals and Products. Robin is a Dutch national and in his new role will continue to be based in The Hague, Netherlands.
Philippa Bounds began her career in 1996 in private practice (Shearman & Sterling, Simmons & Simmons). She joined Shell in 2005 and has held key Legal roles in Gas and Power, Global Procurement and Information Technology, Integrated Gas and Trading and Supply in The Netherlands, the UK and Singapore. Philippa, a British national, is currently General Counsel for Shell’s Trading and Supply businesses, and in her new role will continue to be based in London, UK.
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