Business & Society

Nigeria’s inflation in 2025 will be driven high by floods, currency devaluation – Reuters poll

Inflation in Nigeria has been predicted to remain high in 2025 due to sporadic flooding and difficult terrain for the naira currency while inflation in key African economies will slow into next year, a recent Reuters poll has revealed.
Reuters noted that the acute shortage of dollars in much of the continent including Angola, Nigeria, and Zambia has often put home inflation under significant strain due to a reliance on single commodity currency inflows such as crude oil and copper.
Earlier, the International Monetary Fund predicted a drop in Nigeria’s inflation from the current 33.2 per cent to 23 per cent in 2025 taking into account, the tightening monetary policies of the Central Bank of Nigeria.
Still, the poll of 15 analysts taken in the past week showed inflation would moderate more in countries with better diversified sources of dollar revenues such as Kenya.
“Inflation in Nigeria is expected to quicken to 29.1 per cent this year from an average of 24.5 per cent last year before it slows to 17.2 per cent next year. It hit a 28-year high of 33.2 in annual terms last month.
“Nigeria central bank governor Olayemi Cardoso raised the monetary policy rate by 200 basis points to 24.75 per cent last month after a 400 basis point hike in February.
“Even with a more coherent monetary policy now in place, and potential naira stability, Nigerian inflation will only fall slowly this year,” it noted.
It added that the high inflation rate reflects ongoing elevated food price inflation which accounts for around 50 per cent of the Consumer Price Index basket and is only marginally impacted by monetary policy.
“High food price inflation is a result of flooding seen in many parts of the country in recent years, the rising cost of fertilizer and continuing insecurity in many food-producing regions.”
The report stated that Ghana’s inflation averaged 40.3 per cent last year, but is expected to slow markedly to 18.7 per cent this year and then to 12.1 per cent in 2025.
Angolan inflation is forecast to slow to last year’s average of 13.6 per cent next year from 23.7 per cent this year, while in Zambia it was seen slowing to 8.0 per cent in 2025 from 12.3 per cent this year.
Inflation in Kenya will remain one of the most-tamed in the region apart from South Africa, slowing to an average of 5.6 per cent next year compared with 6.3 per cent this year, the poll found.
Given the 2024 predicted average annual rainfall of 1936.2mm, which has the potential to cause flash floods, the Nigeria Meteorological Agency has issued a crucial advisory to residents residing in wetlands and low-lying regions within both states. The recommendation is to relocate to higher ground to prevent the loss of lives and property. Safety and preparedness are of utmost importance in such situations.
The Acting Director-General of the FCT Emergency Management Department, Mr Mohammed Sabo, in a phone conversation with our correspondent at the weekend, said the department was aware of the predictions, noting efforts to sensitise residents and barricade roads in flash flood areas in the city.
“We have the climate predictions for 2024 by the Meteorological Agency and the National Flood Outlook, and it’s been predicted there will be flash floods around FCT. The normal thing we do is that we engage in a lot of sensitization of the general public, especially those that are living within the river-bank areas, that they should immediately evacuate and go to higher ground, especially when the rainy season commences, to avoid being affected by the flood.
And for most of these flash-flood areas, what we do is that immediately there is rain, especially for very critical roads, we barricade such areas until the rain is over and the water has receded. And for those that experience continuous flooding, we completely barricade the roads till after the rainy season”, he added.
Sabo further explains that the FEMD will begin stakeholder engagements in May, to review previous efforts, and draw up strategies to ensure the safety of lives and property in 2024, as well as carry out a fresh assessment of all flash-flood areas in the FCT.
“Another thing we are going to do is that we are going to go round to assess all the flash flood areas and areas we experience flood within the FCT, and whatever needs to be done is going to be done”, he said.

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