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Global oil demand recovery outpaces production in June – JODI data

Global oil demand (excluding China) and output both rose by 1.0 million barrels per day (mb/d) month-on-month in June, bringing demand up to 98 per cent of pre-pandemic levels and crude production to 96 per cent, new data from the Joint Organizations Data Initiative (JODI) showed.

The data also showed a sharp divergence between Russia’s oil and gas output, with crude oil production rebounding by 538,000 barrels per day (kb/d) month-on-month in June while gas flows plummeted 18 per cent or 10.7 billion cubic metres (bcm) in the month. In June, Russian natural gas output stood 30 per cent below the March level, while crude oil was only 247 kb/d or 2 per cent below its level before the invasion of Ukraine.

The JODI oil and gas databases were updated on Wednesday with 50 countries reporting data for the latest month of June 2022. The June data submissions account for more than 55 per cent of global oil demand and 60 per cent of global crude production.

Total demand increased seasonally by 1.0 mb/d, led by gains in the Middle East and Asia. Crude production also increased by 1.0 mb/d, driven by rebounding Russian production.

Product inventories grew by 34 million barrels – more than five times the average seasonal increase. Crude inventories declined by a seasonal 23 million barrels. Together, global crude and product inventories remain nearly 460 million barrels below the five-year average.

Highlights for June oil data include:

Saudi Arabia

Crude production increased by 108 kb/d to 10.65 mb/d. Crude exports increased by 146 kb/d to 7.20 mb/d. Product exports increased by 72 kb/d to 1.60 mb/d.

Refinery intake increased by 100 kb/d to 2.85 mb/d – a record high.

Product demand increased by 364 kb/d to 2.79 mb/d – the highest level since 2017.

Direct burn of crude oil increased by 105 kb/d to 687 kb/d in June.

Russia:

Crude production increased by 538 kb/d month-on-month to 9.98 mb/d – only 247 kb/d below February 2022 levels.

Refinery intake increased by 443 kb/d to 5.46 mb/d.

United States:

Crude inventories fell by 21.8 mb to 915.8 mb and are now at their lowest level since 2004.

Product inventories increased by 34.1 mb to 650.5 mb.

Highlights for June natural gas data include:

Natural gas demand was at 104 percent of year-ago levels while production was in line with 2021 levels.

Russian gas production plummeted 18 percent month-on-month in June. Production has fallen for three consecutive months and is at 70 percent of March levels.

EU+UK gas consumption was at a 5-year seasonal low in June, while LNG imports were up nearly 50 percent year-on-year. The group’s inventories increased by 9 bcm – slightly less than the seasonal average build of 11 bcm – to stand 57 percent full at the end of June.

Total LNG exports were up 17% year-on-year.

Total gas inventories increased by 28.5 bcm and stood 16.1 bcm below the five-year average.

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